Events and Meetings of Italian Statistical Society, Statistics and Demography: the Legacy of Corrado Gini

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Dimension Reduction by Brass’ Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries
Nico Keilman

Last modified: 2015-09-05


We use techniques of data dimension reduction to model and predict age patterns of household dynamics in a multi-country context. Probabilistic household forecasts are computed to 2041 for Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway. Time series of shares of the population by household position are modelled as Random Walk with Drift. Brass’ relational model preserves the age patterns of the household shares. Predictive distributions for the household shares are combined with predictive distributions of the populations. The predicted continuation of current trends towards more and smaller households is driven by increasing numbers of persons who live alone. Relative prediction uncertainty in more numerous household types is smaller than that in less numerous types.

Key words: probabilistic household forecast, Brass relational model, random share method, one-person households, couples, lone parents, institutions

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