Events and Meetings of Italian Statistical Society, Statistics and Demography: the Legacy of Corrado Gini

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Material deprivation and health inequalities. Models to control the ecological fallacy.
Laura Grisotto, Annibale Biggeri

Date: 2015-09-09 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM
Last modified: 2015-09-05


The association between disease risk and socio-economic indicators such as material deprivation or education-based indexes is often investigated using ecological data. In this kind of analysis ecological fallacy has been documented. Models that integrate aggregate information on the frequency of disease with individual data on risk factors have been proposed. Such models are generally not robust and could fail to converge. Bayesian formulations of these models have been proposed. We developed a series of Bayesian models to integrate aggregate data on a discrete response variable with a sample of individual data on risk factors to control the ecological fallacy. We take advantage of ISTAT mortality death certificates by Province for the period 2000-2004 and Multiscopo ISTAT survey of the year 2000 for risk factors. We found an important effect of material deprivation on mortality which is consistent with epidemiological literature.

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