Events and Meetings of Italian Statistical Society, Statistics and Demography: the Legacy of Corrado Gini

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Employment forecasts: subjective expectations and the economic crisis
Paolo Mariani, Biancamaria Zavanella, Matteo Maria Pelagatti

Last modified: 2015-08-28

Abstract


The economic crisis experienced in the years 2008-09 showed that the forecasting systems are unable to cope with events never previously recorded. Conversely, the subjective expectations of entrepreneurs have proven to be able to anticipate the event. This paper, using official statistics, proposes a joint reading of the two approaches.

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